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Rich Crew
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Over/Under: 36
Tampa enters this game needing a win to keep pace with the Carolina Panthers atop the NFC South division. They have gotten their running game on track in recent weeks (124 yards per game in last 4) and RB 'Cadillac' Williams is a big part of it. The rookie has rebounded nicely from a leg injury that he suffered earlier in the season. New England's run defense has been stellar lately (68 yards per game last 5 weeks) and look for them to try and take the rookie out of the game. QB Chris Simms will look to attack a secondary that has been torched all year. However, the Pats shut down the Jets and Bills in their last two wins. Look for Simms to target WR Joey Galloway on deep balls and for him to attack the middle of the secondary. NE has really missed SS Rodney Harrison since he was lost to injury a few months ago. We feel Simms can move the ball on this defense, especially through the air.
The Patriots' offense has come alive and that coincides with the return of RBs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. Tampa's run defense has held up this season but they could wear down against Dillon in the second half. QB Tom Brady has moved the ball through the air very well this season. Look for him to display good patience against the Cover 2 and attack it deep along the sidelines and over the middle on crossing patterns. Tampa has to be aware of the screen, a big weapon in the New England arsenal.
With Dillon back in the fold, New England can regain the balance they lost when he was out. Brady will put up points on the board against this defense but we feel Simms will do the same. New England struggles vs. the pass and we think that will continue here. With a relatively low number, we like the Over on this game.
Take the Over (36 points)
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